BJS Survey: Serious Violent Victimization Fell 25% in 2025; Overall Violent Crime Change Not Statistically Significant
ANALYSIS · October 27, 2026
Slug: bjs-ncvs-2025-preliminary-victimization-estimates
Package note: This Analysis covers the Bureau of Justice Statistics report Preliminary Victimization Estimates from the NCVS, 2025 (NCJ 312234, October 2026), by BJS statisticians Jennifer L. Truman and Susannah N. Tapp, and the Justice Department’s October 26, 2026 press release about it. The 2025 figures are preliminary and may change when BJS publishes Criminal Victimization, 2025, which it says is forthcoming in 2027. The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) measures nonfatal crimes reported by a sample of residents, whether or not they were reported to police. It does not count homicide.
Primary sources
- BJS report page: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/preliminary-victimization-estimates-ncvs-2025
- BJS full report (PDF): https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/pvencvs25.pdf
- DOJ Office of Public Affairs release (October 26, 2026): https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/national-crime-victimization-survey-shows-violent-crime-plummeted-2025
The Bureau of Justice Statistics estimates that U.S. residents age 12 or older experienced 7.5 million violent victimizations in 2025, a rate of 25.7 per 1,000 people, and that households experienced 14.9 million property victimizations, a rate of 111.2 per 1,000 households. BJS reports a statistically significant 25% drop in violent crime excluding simple assault (rape or sexual assault, robbery and aggravated assault), from 9.9 to 7.4 per 1,000 people, and a 19% drop in the property victimization rate. These are the first estimates from the redesigned survey (NCVS-R), which BJS fully adopted in January 2025.
Core Tension
The DOJ release’s subhead says “Non-fatal violent crime dropped 25% from 2024 to 2025.” In the BJS report, the 25% figure applies to violent crime excluding simple assault. The total nonfatal violent victimization rate fell from 28.7 to 25.7 per 1,000 (about 10%), and BJS does not mark that change as statistically significant. The body of the DOJ release states the 25% figure correctly as violent crime excluding simple assault. BJS also cautions that the 2025 numbers are preliminary, come from a redesigned survey that is “not comparable to legacy NCVS estimates,” and rely on a one-time weighting adjustment because October and November 2025 interviews were missed during the lapse in federal appropriations.
What the BJS report shows
Violent victimization, rate per 1,000 persons age 12 or older
| Type | 2024 (final) | 2025 (preliminary) | Change significant at 95%? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total violent crime | 28.7 | 25.7 | No |
| Rape/sexual assault | 3.2 | 2.8 | No |
| Robbery | 2.2 | 1.6 | No |
| Aggravated assault | 4.5 | 3.1 | Yes (−31%) |
| Simple assault | 18.8 | 18.3 | No |
| Violent crime excluding simple assault | 9.9 | 7.4 | Yes (−25%) |
Property victimization, rate per 1,000 households
| Type | 2024 (final) | 2025 (preliminary) | Change significant at 95%? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total property crime | 138.0 | 111.2 | Yes (−19%) |
| Burglary/trespassing | 14.0 | 10.5 | Yes (−25%) |
| Motor vehicle theft | 8.9 | 6.3 | Yes (−30%) |
| Other theft | 104.6 | 85.2 | Yes (−19%) |
| Vandalism | 10.4 | 9.2 | No |
Source: BJS, NCJ 312234, tables 1 and 2. Significance markers are as shown in the report’s tables. BJS says all comparisons in its text are statistically significant unless stated otherwise.
Limits BJS states
- Preliminary: 2025 estimates “may change” when final estimates are published in 2027.
- New survey design: BJS fully transitioned to the redesigned NCVS-R in January 2025; NCVS-R estimates “are not comparable to legacy NCVS estimates” (the legacy instrument ran from 1992 to 2024). The 2024 comparison figures come from the redesign version of the survey.
- Missing months: Interviews were not conducted in October and November 2025 during the lapse in federal appropriations. BJS multiplied second-half base weights by 1.5 so that four months of data (July, August, September and December) represent six months. First-half weights were not affected.
- Response rates: The 2025 file includes 101,980 household interviews, with 53% of eligible households completing interviews, and 152,150 person interviews, a 78% unweighted response rate among eligible persons in responding households.
- Scope: Covers persons age 12 or older; excludes homicide; excludes victimizations that occurred outside the United States. Standard errors are published in the report’s appendix table 1.
NCVS and police-reported data
The NCVS is a household survey, so it counts crimes whether or not victims reported them to police, according to BJS. It is a different measure from police-reported crime statistics such as the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program. The BJS report itself does not compare its estimates with police-reported figures.
Claims check
| Claim | Assessment | Receipt |
|---|---|---|
| “Non-fatal violent crime dropped 25% from 2024 to 2025” (DOJ release subhead) | Does not match the BJS table as worded | BJS table 1: the 25% drop is for violent crime excluding simple assault. Total violent crime went from 28.7 to 25.7 per 1,000, a change BJS does not mark as significant. |
| Violent crime excluding simple assault fell 25%, from 9.9 to 7.4 per 1,000 | Verified | BJS table 1; significant at 95%. |
| Aggravated assault rate fell 31%, from 4.5 to 3.1 per 1,000 | Verified | BJS table 1; significant at 95%. |
| Property victimization fell 19%, from 138.0 to 111.2 per 1,000 households | Verified | BJS table 2; significant at 95%. |
| Burglary/trespassing down 25%, motor vehicle theft down 30%, other theft down 19% | Verified | BJS table 2; each significant at 95%. |
| The “rate of violent crime … fell significantly in 2025” (DOJ release, first paragraph) | Partly supported | Significant for violent crime excluding simple assault and for aggravated assault; not marked significant for total violent crime. |
| Homicide rates fell 17% in 2025 | DOJ statement; not reviewed here | Cites a separate BJS report, Homicide Victimization in the United States, 2025. The NCVS does not measure homicide. |
| The drop shows the administration’s agenda “is working” | Opinion (Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward) | The BJS report does not attribute causes to the changes. |
Context / what to watch
- 2027: BJS’s final Criminal Victimization, 2025 report, which may revise these figures.
- Police-reported data: The FBI’s annual crime statistics for 2025, a separate measure.
- Survey redesign: BJS’s companion reports on the redesign, Victimization Estimates from the Redesigned NCVS Instrument, 2024 (NCJ 312200) and Update on the NCVS Instrument Redesign (NCJ 310991).
Reviewed and checked against BJS report NCJ 312234 and the DOJ release · Kelvic Report · 2026-10-27 · for /analysis/bjs-ncvs-2025-preliminary-victimization-estimates